BG Plus氛围提升科研项目|高被引论文分享|新冠病和意大利,下一步会怎么样?
发布时间:2023-04-06
BG PLUS
今日分享论文标题:
COVID-19 and Italy: what next?
写作者:Remuzzi, A; Remuzzi, G
期刊:LANCET
月出版等待时间:APR 11 2020
DOI:10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30627-9
期刊介绍
论文概述
The spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has already taken on pandemic proportions, affecting over 100 countries in a matter of weeks. A global response to prepare health systems worldwide is imperative. Although containment measures in China have reduced new cases by more than 90%, this reduction is not the case elsewhere, and Italy has been particularly affected. There is now grave concern regarding the Italian national health system's capacity to effectively respond to the needs of patients who are infected and require intensive care for SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia. The percentage of patients in intensive care reported daily in Italy between March 1 and March 11, 2020, has consistently been between 9% and 11% of patients who are actively infected. The number of patients infected since Feb 21 in Italy closely follows an exponential trend. If this trend continues for 1 more week, there will be 30 000 infected patients. Intensive care units will then be at maximum capacity; up to 4000 hospital beds will be needed by mid-April, 2020. Our analysis might help political leaders and health authorities to allocate enough resources, including personnel, beds, and intensive care facilities, to manage the situation in the next few days and weeks. If the Italian outbreak follows a similar trend as in Hubei province, China, the number of newly infected patients could start to decrease within 3-4 days, departing from the exponential trend. However, this cannot currently be predicted because of differences between social distancing measures and the capacity to quickly build dedicated facilities in China.
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公元2023年3月3日,星期五,中秋节二月十二日。 自学给与,是自我充实之道, 想当然尔,是自在安忍之道。 凡大事忍耐,是意志幸福之道,p
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